Health News Weekly Links 4/2/2025

Lives Saved by PEPFAR; The 100 Days Mission For Vaccines; Biosafety; Progress on Herpes Vaccines

1. How effective is PEPFAR, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief? According to a recent econometric analysis, it’s been extremely effective!

   1. “The all-cause mortality rate in PEPFAR recipient countries was 20% lower than what would have been expected without PEPFAR support.”

2. How many lives could have been saved if COVID vaccines had been available within 100 days of the pandemic’s onset, per the 100 Days Mission target? Per recent epidemiological modeling, about 8 million!

   1. “If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically, the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8·33 million deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 7·70–8·68) globally, mostly in lower-middle income countries. This corresponds to a monetary saving of US$14·35 trillion (95% CrI 12·96–17·87) based on the value of statistical life-years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems further increases deaths averted to 11·01 million (95% CrI 10·60–11·49). Under an alternative scenario whereby NPIs are lifted earlier on the basis of vaccine coverage, the 100 Days Mission alone could have reduced restrictions by 12 600 days (95% CrI 12 300–13 100) globally while still averting 5·76 million deaths (95% CrI 4·91–6·81).”

   

3. If the COVID pandemic were the result of a lab-escape, what would the implications be? Thoughts from economist Alex Tabarrok.

   1. “First, and most importantly, the higher the probability that SARS-CoV-2 leaked from a lab the higher the probability we should expect another pandemic.”

   2. “A higher probability of a pandemic raises the value of many ideas that I and others have discussed such as worldwide wastewater surveillance, developing vaccine libraries and keeping vaccine production lines warm so that we could be ready to go with a new vaccine within 100 days.”

   3. “Given the risks, a “Biological IAEA” with similar authority as the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct unannounced inspections at high-containment labs does not seem outlandish.”

4. How far off are herpes vaccines? There are early signs of progress on a historically difficult vaccine development challenge. These are coming from early trials of mRNA vaccines.

   1. “mRNA-1608: Messenger RNA (mRNA) technology has shown potential for vaccines against several types of infections — including HSV. Moderna is working on an mRNA HSV-2 treatment vaccine known as “mRNA-1608.”

      Currently, the mRNA-1608 vaccine is being studied in a phase 1/2 clinical trial in adults ages 18 to 55 with a history of recurrent HSV-2 genital herpes. Researchers are testing several different doses to assess safety and immune response. The study is expected to be completed in June 2025.”

   2. “BNT163: BioNTech’s HSV-2 vaccine (BNT163) is also making progress. It uses mRNA technology to prevent infection. The company launched a phase 1 clinical trial in December 2022 studying the vaccine in adults ages 18 to 55 without a history of symptomatic genital herpes. The study is expected to be completed in December 2025.”